December 31, 2009

Net Worth Update: December 2009 = Down -$15,161

I track my net worth monthly on NetworthIQ.

At the end of December 2009 our Net Worth is $616,854 which is down $15,161 from last month.


Almost all of that drop is due to decreased real estate values. Our home and rental properties both dropped around 2-3% in the month. Otherwise our cash is down a bit due to holiday spending as well as some continued rental expenses.

Good Jobs Without a 4 year Degree

Yesterday I stated my opinion that if you can't cut A/B grades in high school that you probably shouldn't go to a 4 year college. But what should you do if you don't have very good grades in school?

Below I've listed a variety of career choices that might be good areas to go into. Most have wages around $40k average. These are just some semi-random suggestions. Its really up to you to decide what to do with your life. If you don't know what career you should pursue then I'd recommend going to your library or counseling office / career center at school and getting all the books or material you can about career choices. Figure out your strengths and match that to a job that you think you might like and you can make a living at.

Variety of career choices for those without a 4 year degree:

Real Estate agent - Median wages are about $40k. You have to pass certification training and you have to be competent at selling. Income can be very inconsistent and you may have little or no guaranteed salary. Hours may vary significantly.

Military - Joining the United States Military is a pretty good career option for a number of reasons. Members of the military provide an invaluable service to our nation. The pay is not fabulous starting out but there is good potential for promotion and plenty of benefits. There is the obvious danger related to the job. Another big benefit of the military is that it can give you the experience to open the door to many civilian jobs.

Skilled Construction : Electrician, Plumber, Sheet Metal worker, etc - Skilled workers in construction can make very good wages and can have good benefits. Electricians and plumbers both make abut $22 /hr average. Union positions generally have higher wage levels and benefits. Formal apprentice programs will give on the job training as you are paid to learn. This work can be dangerous and may be outside in harsh weather. Construction work is also very dependent on economic cycles.

Car Salesman : A job in retail sales generally won't require a degree. If you have an aptitude for sales then you might do well as a car salesman. The median hourly wage for auto sales is over $18/hr. Your wages will depend greatly on your ability to sell. If you feel you have a knack for sales then you could try it short term and you'll know if you can succeed at it or not pretty quick (cause they'll probably fire you if you can't).

Work up to Management - This isn't a job you can instantly jump into but a career path that can lead to a highly compensated position. Most service industry employers have career paths to promote people form entry level positions to management roles.

Air Traffic Controller - This is a hard job to get into and there are not many openings. If you don't go to special school or get training in the military then you have to be 30 years old and have some work experience. The work difficult and is extremely stressful. But if you can cut it then the compensation is good with average wages well over $100k.

Postal mail carrier - Median wages are over $49k. Benefits are pretty good. You have to score well on the postal exam and jobs are going to be harder to come by. Competition for postal carrier jobs is going to be keen in coming years. You have to work outside and early hours.

Auto Mechanics - There are a lot of cars out there and they eventually break down so there are a lot of opportunities to work as an auto mechanic. Median pay is a bit over $16/hr. Training varies but usually includes some form of vocational post secondary certification. You may go to a community college for an associates degree. Many auto makers and dealers sponsor programs to train mechanics in work and study rotations.

Paralegals and legal assistants - Most paralegals have a 2 year degree but some are trained on the job. Paralegals make $46k median wages. The work is indoors but might have long hours and stressful environments. Demand for paralegals is growing.

Hazardous material removal - This is the kind of job where you suit up and wear a mask to remove asbestos or other hazardous materials. There is no special education required but you might need certification. Wages are pretty good with median pay just short of $18/hr. Of course you run the risk of exposure to the hazardous materials but if done properly it should be fairly safe.

Dental assistants - You generally learn this field on the job. This is not to be confused with a dental hygienist which is a higher level occupation. The dental assistant is there to be an assistant by performing various duties in the dental office. Median pay is about $32k and job prospects are good.

Correctional officers - Guards make about $38k median wages. Some positions may require a college degree and others may not, so you may have to look around. I'm not really sure how dangerous these jobs are exactly but truck drivers and farmers die on the job more often than police officers so don't assume too much about the risk factors.

December 30, 2009

Comment Policy

Comments are encouraged on this blog. I do moderate comments. Here is my policy for comments:

  1. Spam or other obvious advertisements are not allowed.
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  3. Abusive or offensive language towards anyone (including myself) is not allowed.
  4. Religious or political argument in comments is not allowed.
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If any comment violates this policy than I reserve the right to remove it without notice.

Possible Bargains on Pontiac and Saturn cars

So apparently Pontiac and Saturn cars have very deep dealer discounts right now. Looking at both their websites they are advertising $6500 cash back on all cars. Saturn offer and Pontiac offer

With a $6500 cash back incentive you could get some pretty cheap new cars. The Pontiac G3 is $14,335 MSRP so $6,500 off that would make it $7,835 for a new compact car which is pretty hard to beat.

GM will continue to support both brands so your warranty will be valid and they'll sell parts for the cars in the future. But it seems to me like there might be a catch somewhere. I get the cheapest cars like the G3's have sold quickly to bargain hunters and with Pontiac and Saturn both being shut down there might only be a few cars left on lots. If you're in the market for a new car then it might be worth a look though.

If you Can't get A's & B's in High School Then Don't Go to College

I'm going to state this as a rule of thumb:

If you can't get A's or B's average grades in high school then I don't think you should go to a 4 year college.

Note that I said A/B average grades. So if you get an occasional C or D then that shouldn't alone hold you back as long as you're averaging B's or better. I'm also applying this to a 4 year college. If you don't have the best grades then you might still consider starting at a community college or junior college either as a stepping stone to a 4 year school or to pursue a 2 year degree.

Why do I draw the line at a B average or better? Simply put I think that if you can't pull at least a B average in high school then you aren't going to be prepared to succeed in college. High school is easier than college and if you can't succeed academically in high school then you can't succeed academically in college. Going to college and struggling then dropping out won't really benefit you. Or if you go to college and work really hard and barely manage to get C's in college then it will be fairly hard to find good employment with such a transcript. Generally I think people in this situation are better off pursuing another career that wouldn't require a 4 year degree.

Why shouldn't people go? College is expensive and it has to provide a good return on your money to be worth the investment. If you can't succeed in college then it is wasted money. Too many people go to college nowadays and they are wasting a lot of money by doing so. Only 60% of people who go to college graduate within 6 years, so 40% of people are wasting money going to college.

So what if you don't have the best grades in school, then what should you do for a job? Tomorrow I'll list some career choices that don't require a 4 year degree.

December 29, 2009

Cutting Back on Eating Out

Around a year and a half ago I talked about how we were Spending a lot on eating out. Originally we were spending around $900 a month on eating out. Since then we worked to cut back the spending some and recent spending has been in the $600-$700 range but thats still a lot. Eating out has been one of our major expenses.

Some of you might be wondering how I could possibly "waste" so much on eating out. I splurge a significant amount on eating out because I value it highly and I can afford it. I don't have a new car, I live in a modest sized home and I save over 30% of my income. If I made less money, or if I had lower savings or any debts then I certainly wouldn't be eating out as much as I do. Still eating out is a significant expense and I've tried to keep the spending on it down.

My wife and I discussed it lately and we agreed to cut back on our eating out. We usually eat out about four times a week and we decided to cut back to three times. This should cut our costs for eating out roughly 25%. This should get us down to the $450-$525 / month level.

We decided to cut back eating out for a couple reasons. We both felt that we were eating out a lot and that we wouldn't really miss the experience if we ate out a bit less. I enjoy eating out. The experience is something I like to do. But if I ate every meal out or ate most meals out then the experience would be so routine that it would end up meaning nothing for me. Another reason we decided to cut back is that we felt we had higher priorities for the money. Eating out once a week less will save us something around $2,000 a year in after tax money. There are a lot of great things we could do with an extra $2,000 a year. We haven't designated a specific thing to do with that money and in fact we may just save it. But when we thought about it we asked ourselves the question : would we prefer to eat out 1 time a week more or would we prefer to have $2,000 extra per year? We chose to have the extra money.

Why not just eat at cheaper places? If you're quick with math you can probably figure out that we spend around $35-$40 per meal on average. Those are not cheap meals at cheap restaurants. Instead of cutting back to 3 meals out we could just eat 4 meals at cheaper restaurants. In fact I could actually afford to eat a lot more if we ate at junk food places all the time. A primary reason we eat out is for the entertainment value. I like to sit in a nice comfortable booth in a nice restaurant and have a nice night out with my wife. I don't like to pull through a drive through and have someone hand me a bag of warmed over food like substances. I don't really want to trade good quality food for low quality food. Lets face it junk food places don't sell very high quality food. Now I don't mean to come off snobbish about junk food, I like McDonalds as much as the next guy. But eating a quick burger isn't the reason we spend money on eating out. We eat out for the "going out" entertainment factor and the higher quality food.

December 28, 2009

Time for After Christmas Shopping

Now that Christmas is past us its a good time to go buy some Christmas stuff. If you need any wrapping paper, Christmas decorations or holiday cards you're sure to find them for bargain prices this week. I would assume most stores are running sales to clear out their holiday stuff. Target.com has a sale on their holiday items. Seems their discounts are in the 30-75% range. HomeDepot also has a clearance sale and they are selling a bunch of stuff for 50% off. Those are just the first two websites I randomly chose to check out. If you're going to shop online then try using Ebates and get a further discount. Ebates has 5% back for Target and 3% back for HomeDepot. Course like I said those are just two randomly selected stores and I'm pretty sure most other stores will have holiday stuff on sale.

December 25, 2009

December 21, 2009

Taking a Break This Week

I will be taking a break from posting this week for the holiday. I don't expect to post anything through Christmas but should return with regular posts sometime after Christmas.

December 18, 2009

Replacing a Broken Furnace

We got some bad news yesterday. The furnace in one of our rentals has broken down again. This is the second that furnace has broke in the past few weeks. The first repair was fairly minor and was only around $150 to get done. However this time the repair would cost us around $400. We had the same furnace break down last winter as well and I can't remember how much it cost to get fixed that time. The furnace is fairly old now at least 15 years and is likely to keep failing at this point. Rather than keep pumping money into repairing it we decided instead to get the entire furnace replaced. Repairing the furnace is about $2000. So we could spend $400 today on a repair or spend $2000 to replace it. Thats really a $1600 difference to get an all new furnace and not have the risk of more repair calls next month or next week.

This is a good reminder that if you want to own rental properties that you really need to have some working capital. If we didn't have $2,000 readily available to spend and we were on a tight budget then we'd end up just paying the $400 to repair the furnace. I see that as a short term solution that would end up costing more in the long run. You don't want to keep pumping money into repairing an old item.

December 17, 2009

Retracting a previous article on New York Life insurance

I had previously posted an article saying that New York Life Whole Life Policy Ad Overstating Returns. After a comment from a representative of New York Life they correct a mistaken assumption that I had made. I originally thought they had overstated their returns by not counting the annual premiums in their calculations, but they had in fact added in the premium costs so I was incorrect. SO I've edited that article to state that I am retracting it and I put the word "NOT" into the title.

In this case I was wrong so I've corrected it.

December 16, 2009

How Much Does the Electricity to run Christmas Lights Cost?

Last year I talked about some ways that you can save on electricity costs on your Christmas Lights.

This year I decided to measure and find out exactly how much electricity my own Christmas lights use. I've got a simple string of the icicle style Christmas lights up decorating our house right now. I've had them setup on a Kill-a-Watt meter to see how much electricity they use. The lights are setup to turn on and off with a mechanical timer.

The string is using 72 W of power. The meter is showing 8.07 kWh of total usage. The meters timer shows its been running for 387 hours total which is 16 days and 3 hours. I have a timer setup to turn the lights on sometime around 5pm and then shut them down around 11pm (give or take). The lights are on about 6-7 hours a day. Its a mechanical style of timer so the times aren't super exact.

So in about 16 days I've used a hair over 8 kWh of power. That works out to 0.5 kWh per day of operation. My electricity is about 10¢ per kWh.

So the bottom line is :

1 day of operation costs 5¢ in electricity.

The whole Christmas season will cost me around $1.50.


Photo by antony_mayfield

December 15, 2009

Buy $25 get $5

There are several restaurants out there that offer a "Buy $25 Get $5" deal. By this I mean that if you buy a $25 gift card from them that they will give you a free $5 coupon or gift card. A trick to use with these offers is to buy a card for yourself at a restaurant you know you go to and get yourself $5 off by doing so.

Here are a few restaurants that offer such deals:

Buffalo Wild Wings : From the Buffalo Wild Wings homepage click on the 'tip yourself' promo. But you can't get their deal online and you have to go into the store. Buy before 12/31.

Red Lobster :
You can get Red Lobster gift cards online. Use promo code FCC5425 and buy before 12/21. If you buy a $25 gift card then you get a coupon worth $5 off of 2 entrees.

Red Robin : Get $5 in 'bonus bucks' for every $25 you spend.

Denny's : For the deal from Denny's they have a $1.95 s/h fee so I'd recommend you go to a store to buy in person.


If you're buying online then make sure theres no shipping or handling fees. I didn't see any on the Red Lobster or Red Robin sites but they might sneak in a fee when you check out.

December 14, 2009

Is High Yield Stock a Bargain or a Warning Sign?

What do GM and Citigroup have in common? They are both components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, they both paid dividends of over 4% in 2008 and they both lost 90% of their value since Jan. 2008. So lets say you were shopping for stocks in early 2008 and you figured that Dow stocks should be a safe bet. You might filter the Dow for undervalued stocks by looking at the higher yielding stocks. These stocks might have seemed like a relatively safe bargain a couple years ago but both turned out to be flops.

If a stock price drops then the yield % goes up. So a Dow component with a high yield might be viewed as a good value. On the other hand a high yield may be a reflection of a stock who's price has been declining yet still has a relatively high trailing dividend. A stock in trouble may be destined for bankruptcy or it may be due for a cut in dividends. A high dividend yield may be fools gold.

The bottom line is that a high dividend on a stock isn't alone an indication that the stock is a good value. High dividends could be reflection of a stock that is in trouble. You should take caution when picking high dividend stocks to make sure they have sound financials.

December 13, 2009

Some Good Books

Here is a summary of some of the good books that I've read. I would recommend these books myself. They cover different finance related topics and theres likely to be something here appropriate for most everyone:

The Unofficial Guide to Real Estate Investing is a very comprehensive introduction to investing in real estate. The book covers everything from valuing properties, buying and financing, tax implications and 1031 exchanges all the way through being a landlord.

The Insider's Guide to Buying a New or Used Car is a complete guide to buying either a used or new car. They discuss topics such as : researching cars, getting loans, doing a trade in, test drives, figuring dealer costs, buying tactics, countering the dealers sales pitch, and good and bad negotiating tactics. There are a lot of good tips on negotiating sales and I think that's the section I got the most out of.

Investing for Dummies by Eric Tyson. Reading a Dummies book doesn't mean you're literally a dummy. Topics include overview of different types of investments, discussion of risks and rewards, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate and small businesses. The book does a good job of pointing out things to avoid and giving tips on various topics.

The Complete Idiot's Guide to Getting Rich is focused on obtaining and growing wealth. Don't let the title throw you, its not a get rich quick scheme. The book covers all the phases of wealth building and I particularly like their 5 stages of wealth.

The Millionaire Next Door is mostly statistics on millionaires. I found it a very interesting read but honestly it doesn't have too much along the lines of advice or plans to help you. The book does a great job of laying out the case for how people who live below their means have the best shot at wealth.

December 11, 2009

Best of blog posts for week of December 11th

Jim at Bargaineering recommends that you Don’t Buy A Home Within 5 Years of Graduation and I think that is pretty good advice.

Digerati Life cautions against scams with: Heard of Stimulus Grants? Scams Abound

Frank at Bad Money Advice goes into the business of backing the US government: I Will Guarantee Your Treasury Bonds

December 10, 2009

The Problem with Chasing Performance of Funds

How do you pick a good mutual fund? The performance track record and investment philosophy of a mutual fund and its manager seem like good way to pick a mutual fund. If a fund has been consistently performing for years and their fund manager has a good head on their shoulders then it seems like it should be a good investment.

That is the logic that lead me to buy into Brandywine Blue (BLUEX) a couple years ago in my 401k. They'd been averaging about 13% returns for 20 years and were in the top 10% of funds. They invested with long term value in mind and scrutinized the financials of companies. They purposely avoided Enron because they "couldn't get their hands around" the company's books. Both their performance and philosophy seemed good to me. Whats not to like about them? It didn't take me too long to find out the answer.

Jump forward a couple years... their 1, 3 and 5 year performance is at the bottom 30% in their class. Their YTD performance is 16% below the index and they are dead last among funds in their class. I still don't know if theres anything "wrong" with their investment strategy per se or if something has changed. I really don't know why they are down so far right now. But the fact remains that what was a very attractive looking fund a couple years ago is now a dog.

Consider the fund CGM Focus (CGMFX) which I was looking at in summer of 2008. At that point they were averaging 35% gains for 5 years. They were up a whooping 79% in 2007. But so far in 2009 they've underperformed the S&P 500 by 16% and they're 23% behind the fund category and the year to date returns place them in the bottom 2% of funds in their category. So again we find a mutual fund with fabulous returns for the past few years which then fails to perform after that.

Now these are just 2 semi-random examples. You could also find a mutual fund that performed great for several years and has continued to do so through the recession. But how do you know if any one fund with a good recent performance history will continue to perform well in the future? You simply can't know. You've probably heard it before: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Brandywine Blue and CGM Focus are two good examples of this fact.

December 9, 2009

Protect Your Pipes

State Farm says that over 250,000 families have damage from frozen or burst pipes every year. The costs of a frozen pipe can be pretty significant. First you may have to call a plumber to unthaw frozen pipes and/or repair broken pipes. A plumber visit will run you at least $100 you can assume. Worse yet frozen pipes may burst resulting in water damage to your home and belongings. Water damage could be very costly running you hundreds or even thousands of dollars to fix. It is a serious enough problem that State Farm is concerned with it undoubtedly due to the amount of money they have to pay due to claims from their customers.

Frozen pipes are generally preventable so don't let it happen to you. Now is the time of year you should make sure that your homes water pipes are protected against freezing.

Key tips:

Don't shut off your heat completely if going on vacation.
Insulate pipes that are exposed to outside walls or in an unheated basement or crawl space.
Disconnect garden hoses
Locate your master water shut off valve in case of a freeze

For more information check out these sites:
Red Cross page on preventing and thawing frozen pipes
State Farm's frozen pipe page.

December 8, 2009

New York Life Whole Life Policy Ad NOT Overstating Returns

I am retracting this article.

I was incorrect in my conclusion when I wrote this article originally. I originally stated that New York Life had overstated the returns on their whole life policy in an ad in Businessweek magazine. However I had mistakenly assumed that their annual policy costs were on top of the initial investment when in fact the annual premium costs were included in their calculations.

I'm leaving the original article below intact for reference, but to be clear :

The return of 3.9% stated in NY Life's ad does appear to be correct and I was wrong to declare they overstated it.

The original article as written is below.
---

In a recent copy of Businessweek magazine there is an ad from New York Life where they compare the average annual return on their $50,000 whole life policy and the S & P 500. They have a little bar chart they made up with the growth of their insurance on the left and the S&P 500 growth on the right. They are looking at 9/30/99 to 9/30/09. The graph shows that their insurance went from initial value of $15,000 to a cash value of $22,005 where as in the same 10 year period the S&P lost money dropping to $14,778. They say their insurance grew at a 3.91% rate and the S&P 500 is down -0.15%.

That all sounds fine but the problem is in the small print. At the end of the ad they have a paragraph full of detail and other info. They say that the policy is "purchased in1999 for a 35-year old, non smoking male; $648 annual premium plus $14,352 lump sum payment for paid up additional insurance" So its not a $15,000 investment it is instead $648 per year plus $14,352. Thats a total of $20,832 that you've put in. They claimed that 3.91% growth from $15,000 turning into $22,005. But you've paid more than $15,000. The total amount of money you've put in is $20,832. If you look at an investment of $20,832 growing to $22,005 in 10 years then thats a growth of 0.54%. [ This was an incorrect conclusion on my part, the 3.9% rate that NY Life advertised is actually right.] But to be fair you are getting $50,000 of insurance coverage at the same time. However to ignore that $648 you're spending a year is not realistic. Whole life policy premiums are very expensive. You can buy term life for much less. I did a quick quote on a $50,000 term policy on QuickQuote and there I found a 20 year term policy for $97.50 per year. So if you're paying $648 a year then thats about $550 more per year for the whole life policy. Whats the annual return on $14,352 lump sum and $550 a year if you end with $22,005? That works out to a 1.25% return. So compared to buying term life the real return for the whole life is 1.25% annually. Thats not horrible.

Bottom line that NY Life whole life policy return is much closer to what you might get in a basic savings account over the past 10 years. If you'd bought a term life policy and put your money in treasuries then you'd be ahead.

True the NY Life policy has beaten the S&P 500 in the past 10 years, but then that hasn't been hard to do. The past 10 years has been one of the worst 10 year stretches for the S&P500. You could have beaten the S&P 500 in several ways. If you go back just a couple years the S&P500 was trading about 50% more than it is today. Was NY Life bragging about the returns of their whole life policy compared to the S&P 500 then? No because the S&P 500 was beating their insurance policy by a pretty good margin at that point.

It seems like the NY Life policy isn't a bad return for a whole life policy but I do think their ad is a little bit misleading. I have yet to find a cash value life insurance policy that was a better value than simply buying term insurance and investing the difference.

December 7, 2009

November heat costs down 21%

After we got our home air sealed and added insulation back in August I've been trying to figure out exactly how much it is saving us on our heat bills. I just got the November electric bill so now I can see what we're saving 21% in November this year.


Reviewing the October results:


Previously I discussed the heat savings we saw in October.

October 2009 : $113.77
October 2008 : $149.30

If we assume other non-heat electricity use of $80 a month then that is a 52% drop in our heat costs for October.

Examining November's results:

The electric bill for November 2009 was $187.37 which is $28.91 lower than last year.

Electric bill
November 2009 : $187.37
November 2008 : $216.28

Assuming $80 electric costs
Heat costs
November 2009 : $107.37
November 2008 : $136.28

That represents a 21% savings in our heating costs for November this year compared to last year.

Now lets compare how cold it was this November compared to last year.

I use WeatherUnderground to find the average daily temperatures and then calculated the degree days myself. Average temperatures were about 3F degrees colder at 49F in 2008 and 46F in 2009.

November 2009 : 590 Degree Days
November 2008 : 492 Degree Days

So November 2009 was significantly colder than Nov. 2008.

I'm also working under the assumption that other electric usage through the month didn't vary significantly from 2008 to 2009.

November and October combined

If you look at October and November combined we've saved $64.44 total so far this year compared to last year. That represents about a 31% savings on our heat costs so far.

December 6, 2009

How less than 20 hours a Year can Net you a $900,000 a Retirement Nest egg

Basic frugal living can save a substantial amount of money in the long run. I do a lot of pretty simple frugal things in my life that add up to make a sizable financial impact.

Below I give some examples of how savings from basic frugal living can add up
for you.

Here are 4 basic things I do in my daily life to live frugally:

Bagging my lunch :

I bag my lunch 4 days a week. It costs roughly $2.50 to make a lunch compared to about $6 to eat out. I could have a cheaper bagged lunch but I like higher quality lunch.
Time : 5 min x 50 weeks = 250 min = 4.17 hrs
Savings: $3.5 / day x 230 workdays = $805 / year
$ / hr = $193

Mowing my own lawn :
I actually enjoy mowing my own lawn. Its good exercise and a good excuse to do something useful outside.
Time : 20 min x 20 weeks = 400 min = 6.67 hr
Savings : $25 x 20 weeks = $500 / year
$ / hr = $74.9

Washing my car:
I almost always wash my own car. I don't wash it very frequently to be honest and I'm just ballparking a rough guess on how often I do it.
Time : 30 min x 6 times = 180 min = 3 hr
Savings : $5 x 6 = $30 / year
$/ hr = $10

Shopping thrift stores for clothing:
I might spend a half hour hunting through the racks and end up with 1 maybe 2 good items. Lets say I average 30 minutes per item and I pick up 8 items a year. I spend about $5 per item and would probably spend $20-30 for them new so figure a $20 average savings.
Time : 30 min x 10 times = 300 min = 5hr
Savings : $20 x 10 = $200 / year
$/hr = $40

Combined impact

Altogether I spend 18.84 hours doing these tasks. Thats not much time really. On average its less than 30 minutes a week. In total I save $1,535 per year. That works out to $81/hr savings in after tax dollars. Thats a pretty good use of time don't you think??

Now what is the impact of this over the long run? If I started this at age 24 and I do theses things for 40 years and invest all that money and get 10% annual returns, if inflation is about 3% annually then at the end I'll have just under $900,000 after 40 years! Of course I'd have to adjust that for inflation as well so it would be equivalent to about $280,000 in todays dollars.

Some notes: The math here is meant to be realistic and drawn from my own life, but these are 'off the top of my head' numbers meant for example sake. I don't know if its really realistic to assume 10% growth on the investments and 3% inflation rates, but I had to pick numbers. For reference, if you assume 8% growth then you'd end up with over $550,000. I haven't considered the tax implications of your investments so you can assume the money is taxable.

December 4, 2009

Best of blog posts for week of December 4th

Bad Money Advice discusses the supposed high rate of bankruptcy rates among lottery winners with : Why Lotteries are Bad – The Third Reason They have the same doubts that I've had about how common bankruptcy really is among winners.

Generation X Finance also points out some bad money advice with Robert Kiyosaki is Off his Rocker (Again) – Is The 401(k) Really the Biggest Scam Ever?

Darwin's Finance talks about a little known government home loan program : USDA Home Loan Program – The 0% Down Bonanza You’ve Never Heard About

Free Money Finance has One Example of Living Paycheck-to-Paycheck which I think is a very good tale of how bad relationships and choosing the wrong mate can really ruin your finances.

Bargaineering talks about Charge Cards: The Forgotten Option Since I use an Amex credit card and pay it off monthly switching to a charge card wouldn't be much difference for me personally except unfortunately the charge cards have fairly steep fees.

An Example of How Overdraft Fees Can Pile Up

On an episode of the Suze Orman show the other day they had a guest on the show with some financial problems. The woman and her husband were struggling financially due to over spending and the husband only working part time. They made almost $100,000 between them but only had $300 in the bank. One detail stood out for me was the amount they had paid in bank overdraft fees. So far this year in 2009 they had already paid over $4,600 in bank overdraft fees. Yikes!

I've seen stories of how banks made over $36 billion in overdraft fees last year. That is in the ballpark of $300 per household. The vast majority of the overdraft fees are paid by a minority of account holders. In 2007 the American Banking Association survey found that 80% of consumers did not pay any fees. That is a whole lot of fees paid by a whole lot of people.

If you are having problems with overdraft fees then paying for your day to day expenses with cash would be one strategy. That way if you put $20 of gas in your car you won't risk running over your balance on your account and hitting an overdraft fee. Theres no overdraft fees with cash.

December 3, 2009

House passes Estate Tax Changes

The House voted to extend the estate tax on wealthy households. The changes passed by the House would make the $3.5M exemption permanent. If the law isn't modified then the estate tax would be repealed for 2010 and then drop back to the old $1M exemption after that.

But its not law yet. It will also have to pass the Senate and get signed by the president before it is law but this is one step. It might take a while for the Senate to get around to debating the issue since they're busy with health care reform and its possible the Senate won't go for the House's version and it could get modified or die altogether.

This shouldn't impact the vast majority of us. Most of us won't die with millions in the bank in any case.

December "Double" cash back on Ebates

Ebates is advertising December "Double" cash back for the holiday shopping season. Oddly the 'double' doesn't seem to be literal since they are advertising before rate of 3% and after rate of 5% for some merchants.

Here is a list of some of the featured rebate deals on Ebates:

Sears has 4% back
HP's store is 5%
Old Navy is 10%
Target is 5%
Barnes & Noble at 8%
Kohl's at 4%

These are just a few of the stores that you can get rebates for from Ebates. If you're doing any online shopping then I'd recommend checking out Ebates to see if the merchant has a rebate there.

Updown Performance : up 19% in 2009

Practice invest


My Updown account is currently up about 19% for the year so far. The S&P 500 is up around 23% for the year.

Overall I'm down up 2.9% since I started.
The S&P is down -14% since I started in Updown.

I made a few trades in November. I bought 310 shares of the oil trust BPT at $78.76 and 280 shares of the high yield bond ETF HYG at $85.60. Both BPT and HYG are on my previously mentioned watch list. I cashed in profits by selling half my Harley stock HOG or 715 shares at $27.90. I also sold off 500 shares of MGM at $10.90.


December 2, 2009

Housing Inventory History past 5 years

The amount of homes for sale on the market at any given time versus the amount of people buying homes is an indicator of the health of the housing market. If the supply of homes is too high then there is too much supply versus the demand and prices will negatively impact prices. On the other hand if supply is tight then we'll probably see prices go up. This is basic supply/ demand economics.

The housing inventory is a measure of the amount of homes for sale on the market versus the amount of homes sold in a month. So for example of there are 5 million homes for sale and homes are selling at a rate of 1 million / month then we can say that there is 5 months of inventory. If there were 10 million homes for sale and they were selling 1 million / month then that would equal 10 months of inventory.

Here is a graphic showing the housing inventory level since 2004:


Right now the inventory level is 7.0 months. The housing inventory peaked at 11.2 a couple times in 2008 both on April again in November.


You can see that back in 2004 through 2006 timeframe the amount of housing on the market was around 4-6 months. Sales of homes were pretty healthy then and the market was doing well. So if we can get back to that level of supply then I'd expect that the market would be back to a relatively healthy state.

The downward trend in inventories from 2008 till now is a good sign for the housing market.


Data Sources: The data on data360.org for months of US housing inventory which had the #'s from 2004 till Oct. 2008. and individual monthly press releases from National Association of Realtors for the past 12 months.

December 1, 2009

Net Worth Update November 2009 : +$4,673

I track my net worth monthly on NetworthIQ.

At the end of November 2009 our Net Worth is $632,015 which is up $4,673 from last month.

Our net worth is up 17% from 12 months ago in Nov. 2008 when our net worth was $539,188.

Nothing exciting or special went on in the past month. On the positive side: Our cash, stock and retirement were all up. Plus we paid down our mortgages some. On the down side, the value of our real estate including our primary home and our rentals dropped a bit.

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