August 8, 2010

Best Forecasted Real Estate Market By State

Case Shiller and Fiserv create forecasts for the real estate market that say how much they think housing values will go up/down in the future.

Bloomberg Businessweek published an article on the strongest forecasted housing markets for each state.    The data is for the forecast of the market in 2014.  So its basically their educated guess on what percent housing prices have gone up by in 2014.   They have each state in a slideshow presentation so you can click through them alphabetically one at a time.  

Below is the list of the city in each state with the highest forecasted 4 year price gain.  

State City % gain by 2014
Alabama Montgomery 10.1%
Alaska Anchorage 20.0%
Arizona Flagstaff 26.0%
Arkansas Jonesboro 9.8%
California Napa 31.7%
Colorado Pueblo 20.0%
Connecticut Norwich-New London 13.3%
Delaware Dover 8.2%
Florida Panama City 26.9%
Georgia Columbus 19.5%
Hawaii Honolulu 12.1%
Idaho Idaho Falls 18.3%
Illinois Chicago 16.3%
Indiana Kokomo 16.5%
Iowa Cedar Rapids 7.1%
Kansas Manhattan 4.9%
Kentucky Bowling Green 9.2%
Louisiana Lake Charles 6.0%
Maine Bangor 18.4%
Maryland Cumberland 16.2%
Massachusetts Cambridge 17.3%
Michigan Detroit 33.1%
Minnesota Duluth 15.9%
Mississippi Gulfport 16.4%
Missouri Cape Girardeau 6.1%
Montana Billings 15.7%
Nebraska Omaha 8.0%
Nevada Carson City 31.6%
New Hampshire Rockingham 5.6%
New Jersey Newark 14.8%
New Mexico Santa Fe 25.8%
New York Glens Falls 16.9%
North Carolina Charlotte 13.9%
North Dakota Grand Forks 8.1%
Ohio Toledo 18.3%
Oklahoma Lawton 3.6%
Oregon Bend 33.6%
Pennsylvania Pittsburgh 18.1%
Rhode Island Providence 7.9%
South Carolina Charleston 19.6%
South Dakota Sioux falls 8.9%
Tennessee Memphis 19.5%
Texas Brownsville 14.5%
Utah Ogden 10.0%
Vermont Burlington 15.6%
Virginia Winchester 13.0%
Washington Bremerton 44.7%
West Virginia Wheeling 9.3%
Wisconsin Wisconsin 9.7%
Wyoming Cheyenne 23.7%

If the numbers seem high to you then keep in mind this is the forecasted increase by 2014.   So thats 4 years worth of gains.   12.5% increase over 4 years would amount to an annual rate of 3%.   18 states are below that rate.   At the highest 44.7% in Bremerton, WA that is an annual rate of 9.5%.    The median of the figures given is 15.8% which amounts to about 3.7% annual increase.    But then again this is the list of the BEST market in each state so its skewed high and not the average for the nation.  

Good news:  Every state has markets going up and none of these markets is expected to see declines.  
Great news:  Some areas will see very strong growth like Bremerton, WA, Bend, OR, Carson City, NV and Detroit MI.  
Bad news:  Many areas are still looking at pretty slow growth which isn't enough to keep on par with historical 3% inflation rates.

Keep in mind that these are of course just forecasts and that its only their educated opinion.  The actual numbers could turn out much higher or lower.  Only time will tell.

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