May 27, 2012

Tracking More Predictions from Money Magazine

A few days ago I looked at some financial predictions for 2012 that were reported by Money magazine.  It was a mostly mixed bag of failure.   I found 3 more general economic predictions in that issue and we'll talk about those today.   Keep in mind these predictions are for the year 2012 and we're only about 6 months past when the magazine was pointed.    

Jobs   -- Forecast : 8.5%   Actual: 8.1%

On page 86 the magazine indicated an expectation that unemployment would be 8.5%.  Today the April 2012 unemployment rate sits at 8.1%.

Housing -- Forecast : Sales of 4.8M homes and prices up 0.25%, Actual : sales 4.6M and median prices up 10%.

Page 74 they said that 'The median expectation among more than 100 economists and real estate pros surveyed by MacroMarkets is that home values will inch ahead by a mere 0.25%."  and that "Freddie Mac forecasts that only 4.8 million homes will be purchased in all of 2012"   The reality so far in 2012 is a bit different.  According to a Bloomberg article the sales are at a 4.6 million annual rate as of April but median prices have jumped 10% year over year from $161,100 in April '11 to $177,400 in April '12.

Gold prediction by Suze Orman -- Forecast : $2100 by 11/2012.   Actual : $1570 level as of May 2012

Money reported a tweet from Suze Orman she made in Oct. 2011 where she predicted that gold will be "$2100 by 11/2012"    and recommended having 10% of your portfolio in the shiny stuff.   I found her reiterate the $2100 target on Nov. 10th last year    Gold started the year 2012 about $1600 and hit a high of $1781 in February.  Today its back down to $1570 level.    

Generally I'd say all 3 of these predictions are wrong at least so far...

Unemployment is 0.4% better than they expected, Home prices are up 10% and gold has not gained the $500 or +30% increase per Ormans prediction.

We'll have to wait till the end of the year to make a final conclusion.   But for now the forecasts aren't proving very accurate.

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2 comments:

  1. I would say the unemployment is "close enough."

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  2. SteveD, I half agree with you that they are not too far off on the unemployment figure. But then 0.4% is pretty substantial difference in terms of unemployment. I mean the spread between horrible and great is 10% to 5% so thats 5% range and so 0.4% is significant.

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