Recently Reuters ran this article : U.S. jobs market dropouts increasingly likely to stay out
And they had this nice bit of information :
Lets look at that graphically :
Thats a pretty big shift.
The more recent 3 years we can see that most of the people leaving are leaving for retirement. Thats a demographic change we'd expect due to the baby boomers retiring. Theres also a fair amount of people going into disability, and I assume many of them are baby boomers too. Thats also a pretty expected trend.
Compared to the 07-10 period when most people left to go to school or 'other'. Annoyingly the article doesn't break down the % of people who went to school versus other reasons and lumps them together. But clearly that large of a drop in the labor pool for school or other is not explained by demographics and is not expected.