December 3, 2010

Will Home Prices Go Up or Down?

Location, location, location.    The housing market varies from city to city and there is not a single housing market in the US.   Every city is a bit different.   So we can't make a broad forecast about housing prices in the US and have it apply equally to someone living in Las Vegas versus Duluth.


CNN Money has a tool for Housing Forecast.   The tool will tell you their predicted change in home values for specific cities.

You can select a state then pick a specific city.    The result gives a couple forecast numbers.   First is the change from first quarter 2010 to first quarter 2011.   That is mostly what we've already seen in the past 9 months.   The second number is the change from first quarter 2011 to first quarter 2012.   I think the second number is more useful as a forecast since its projecting 12 months into 2011 and 2012.

Here is a selection of cities and the forecasted change from Q1 2011 to Q1 2012:

Austin TX = +0.5%
Baltimore MD = +0.5%
Billings, MT = +3.2%
Boise, ID = +3.3%
Boulder,  CO = +0.6%
Buffalo, NY = -0.9%
Charleston, SC = +1.4%
Columbus IN = +0.4%
Detroit MI = +2.8%
Hartford, CT = +0.1%
Las Vegas, NV = -6.8%
Los Angeles, CA = +1.1%
Miami FL = -11.6%
New Orleans, LA = 0.0%
Oklahoma City, OK = -0.5%
Phoenix, AZ = -5.4%
Savannah, GA = +1.1%
Wichita, KS = -0.1%



Of course these figures are just forecasted so its basically an educated guess by real estate experts.   Theres no guarantee at all these forecasts will be correct and its unlikely they'll be perfectly accurate.   I prefer to trust the experts opinions on this kind of thing more than peoples anecdotal evidence, individuals opinions or the general media.

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