November 3, 2013

The Probability of Becoming a Pro Athlete

Most people probably know that very few people end up with professional sports contracts.   Most people play sports as kids and very very few people end up as pro athletes.    But what are the actual probabilities? 

NCAA website has a page on it breaking down the total number of people who play sports in high school, in college and then in pro leagues.   The % of people who start in high school sports and then end up in pro sports are as follows :

Mens Basketball 0.03%
Womens Basketball 0.02%
Football 0.08%
Baseball 0.51%
Mens Ice Hockey 0.10%
Mens Soccer 0.03%

I'm actually surprised that baseball is that high.  But there are a lot of minor league teams and those jobs pay almost nothing.  So getting into 'pro' baseball via a minor league may not mean all that much.     Ice hockey is higher than most but there are not many kids who actually play ice hockey at the high school level since the facilities aren't as wide spread.   I think football is higher than basketball or soccer probably because the NFL teams have so many players on their rosters.


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